Research intelligence

Research Cockpit

What is evidenced, what is not, and why the next experiment exists.

Evidence system

Executed

25 normalized experiments; 222 hashed artifacts.

Claims

9 supported

16 unsupported or pending.

Next experiment

EMBEDDED_EXPORT_PROTOCOL_PREREGISTRATION

Stage 11 produced mixed evidence; Stage 12 remains unexecuted pending a separately frozen protocol.

Largest blocker

Blocked

No nRF52840 firmware measurement or PPK2 trace is registered.

Current frontier

Latest registered experiment

EXP-MCU-C1-FP32-PORT-001

Latest registered artifact

docs/embedded/EXP_MCU_C1_FP32_PORT_001.md

Feature ontology

16 sensors × 8 responses

Blocked/pending stages

Blocked dependencies

Stage	State	Requirement
15 — nRF52840 deployment	Blocked	EXP-MCU-C1-FP32-PORT-001 is BLOCKED_HARDWARE. No physical Nordic/J-Link/CMSIS-DAP device was detected, so no target was guessed, no toolchain was changed, and no build, flash, physical correctness, linked ROM, or linked static-RAM evidence was produced.
16 — Flash/SRAM measurement	Blocked	Requires stage 15.
17 — Physical inference latency	Blocked	Requires stage 15.
18 — PPK2 energy measurement	Blocked	Requires Nordic Power Profiler Kit II and stage 15. No raw traces exist.
19 — Explanation-energy measurement	Blocked	Requires stages 12 and 18.
20 — Pareto analysis	Blocked	Multi-objective (accuracy, fidelity, stability, latency, Flash, SRAM, energy) frontier — needs stages 10, 11, 17, 18.

Fidelity × stability evidence matrix

Interpretation is MIXED when both stages executed but their broad candidate claims remain unsupported. This is not a trustworthiness label.

Model	Method	Fidelity evidence	Stability evidence	Interpretation
MODEL-C1	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1`	mean_selected_minus_random_macro_f1_damage	Spearman 0.190 [-0.737, 0.756], N=8	`MIXED`
MODEL-C2	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1`	mean_selected_minus_random_macro_f1_damage	Spearman 0.595 [-0.266, 1.000], N=8	`MIXED`
MODEL-C3	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1`	mean_selected_minus_random_macro_f1_damage	Spearman -0.190 [-1.000, 0.620], N=8	`MIXED`
MODEL-C4	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1`	mean_selected_minus_random_macro_f1_damage	Spearman -0.310 [-0.899, 0.538], N=8	`MIXED`
MODEL-C1	`INTRINSIC_COEFFICIENT`	mean_selected_minus_random_target_score_drop	Spearman 0.371 [0.074, 0.622], N=51	`MIXED`
MODEL-C1	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL`	mean_selected_minus_random_target_score_drop	Spearman 0.296 [-0.001, 0.540], N=51	`MIXED`
MODEL-C2	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL`	mean_selected_minus_random_target_score_drop	Spearman -0.340 [-0.543, -0.088], N=50	`MIXED`
MODEL-C3	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL`	mean_selected_minus_random_target_score_drop	Spearman -0.107 [-0.433, 0.196], N=44	`MIXED`
MODEL-C4	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL`	mean_selected_minus_random_target_score_drop	Spearman 0.291 [-0.008, 0.511], N=50	`MIXED`

Pre-hardware fidelity × stability × cost

Host latency is not an estimate of nRF52840 latency or energy. Missing evidence remains missing; no zeroes or composite trust score are substituted.

Model	Method	Fidelity	Stability	Host cost	MCU cost
MODEL-C1	`INTRINSIC_COEFFICIENT` GLOBAL	0.0370	NOT_MEASURED	12.8 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C1	`INTRINSIC_COEFFICIENT` LOCAL	0.1407	NOT_MEASURED	444.1 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C1	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1` GLOBAL	0.0411	NOT_MEASURED	1,321,868.867 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C1	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL_NAIVE_REFERENCE` LOCAL	NOT_MEASURED	NOT_MEASURED	40,056.8 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C1	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL` LOCAL	0.1266	NOT_MEASURED	709.083 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C2	`INTRINSIC_IMPURITY` GLOBAL	0.1784	NOT_MEASURED	21,772.7 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C2	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1` GLOBAL	0.1050	NOT_MEASURED	9,500,386.4 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C2	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL_NAIVE_REFERENCE` LOCAL	NOT_MEASURED	NOT_MEASURED	1,402,570.6 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C2	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL` LOCAL	0.0846	NOT_MEASURED	22,425.867 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C3	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1` GLOBAL	0.0275	NOT_MEASURED	3,303,500.9 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C3	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL_NAIVE_REFERENCE` LOCAL	NOT_MEASURED	NOT_MEASURED	43,580.2 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C3	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL` LOCAL	0.0614	NOT_MEASURED	2,391.017 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C4	`PERMUTATION_IMPORTANCE_MACRO_F1` GLOBAL	0.0629	NOT_MEASURED	1,453,887.033 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C4	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL_NAIVE_REFERENCE` LOCAL	NOT_MEASURED	NOT_MEASURED	41,193.5 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`
MODEL-C4	`SINGLE_FEATURE_ABLATION_LOCAL` LOCAL	0.1081	NOT_MEASURED	789.4 µs median	`NOT_MEASURED`